22 February 2026

The Bridge at the Edge of the World

Recommendation

An Ivy League dean trained as a lawyer, James Gustave Speth lays out evidence to show that life on this planet is being pushed to an end. Marshalling sobering facts, he illustrates how humankind has taxed the Earth’s resources beyond its capacity to regenerate. By creating a culture that worships consumption, capitalism has combined with political self-interest and misguided policies to hasten the environment’s demise. An international community of scientists has provided staggering proof of global warming, yet U.S. political leaders have denied the problem and delayed action. Speth worked to protect the environment within the bureaucracy’s sanctioned processes for years, but he now concludes that the environmental movement launched in the 1970s is a failure. He urges citizens and leaders to readjust their priorities. He also advocates public policies that provide financial incentives for sustainable practices, and says governments should hold corporations accountable for the true environmental costs of their products. BooksInShort recommends this book to readers who are interested in economics and social trends, and who want their great-grandchildren to live here – on this planet.

Take-Aways

  • The planet’s natural resources are finite.
  • The exploding human population has overburdened these resources.
  • Evidence of environmental degradation is pervasive. Humans are jeopardizing their own supplies of food and water.
  • Industrialized countries are mostly to blame for climate warming, yet developing nations are more susceptible to its impact.
  • Scientists have clear proof that human activity is raising the planet’s temperature.
  • With a few exceptions, the environmental protection movement born in the 1970s has not succeeded.
  • Political interests, government subsidies and capitalism’s growth fervor have put the world on a perilous, unsustainable path.
  • Environmental economics calculates the true cost of sustainable goods.
  • Only urgent, transformative action can avert the worst-case scenarios.
  • Government must set incentives for beneficial practices and penalize polluters.

Summary

“System Failure: Looking into the Abyss”

An environmental timeline from 1750 through 2000 would display the stark history of how humans have affected the Earth. During this 250-year period, the world’s population increased six-fold with a more than corresponding rise in the use of water, fuel and fertilizer. Despite humankind’s material wealth, nature’s bounty has been staggeringly harmed, from a dramatic loss of rain forests and ocean fisheries, to an increase in global temperatures. These snowballing trends point to the eventual end of human life.

“We are not running out of economically relevant natural resources; we are running out of environment.”

Today’s situation is not a surprise to those who have been campaigning on behalf of the environment for many decades. The first Earth Day in 1970 focused on an array of abuses, such as “strip mining; clear-cutting; dam building...nuclear power; loss of wetlands, farmland, and natural areas; massive highway building programs; urban sprawl; destructive mining and grazing practices; toxic dumps and pesticides; and so on.” Despite some progress, local, regional and national environments have continued to deteriorate substantially, aggravated by the “greenhouse effect” and other far-reaching global symptoms that became evident around the year 2000.

“The planet cannot sustain capitalism as we know it.”

The warming of the planet is the single most serious threat to life today. Human actions have shifted the Earth’s chemistry and released massive quantities of heat-trapping gases, such as carbon dioxide and methane. These hurtful actions include using petroleum, coal and natural gas without restraint, razing forests and paving over fertile land. With all this, today’s climate is considerably warmer than it otherwise would be.

“To reduce environmental impacts faster than the economy is growing requires rapid technological change.”

An international cooperative of scientists, called the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), has been monitoring and analyzing the problem. Its 2007 report documents rising temperatures, shrinking glaciers, melting icebergs, higher sea levels, and increasing drought and flooding. Leaving the warming trend unchecked will mean less fresh water, more extinctions of animals that cannot adapt to changed habitats, extensive damage to sea-level regions, increased air pollution and corresponding illnesses, the erasure of the planet’s polar regions, and more disease, famine and death.

“The big gorilla in the room – the main force driving corporate greening in the past and in the future – is government action, actual and anticipated, domestic and foreign.”

Industrialized nations are most responsible for climate warming, yet developing nations are the most vulnerable to its effects. NASA scientist and early environmental advocate James Hansen believes the planet is fast approaching the point of no return. To gauge the total greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, scientists measure parts per million of “carbon dioxide equivalent” (CO2e). They report that to protect life, CO2e levels must settle at about 450 parts per million (ppm), just 20 ppm higher than the current, rapidly rising levels. Achieving this stability will require an 80% cut in emissions. The U.S. could achieve that challenging goal with an aggressive campaign of vastly better energy efficiency, including sequestering carbon in the earth, abandoning fossil fuels for renewable options, and improved farming and forestry practices.

“Despite all the conferences and negotiations, the international community has not laid the foundation for rapid and effective action.”

Globally, wildlife is suffering as more land gets pulled into agriculture or grazing. Agriculture guzzles almost 75% of the planet’s fresh water. Overfishing has decimated three quarters of formerly healthy ocean fisheries. A United Nations survey found “a consistent decline in average species abundance of about 40% between 1970 and 2000”; the pace has not decreased. Ozone layer depletion, acid rain and heavy use of fertilizers are making matters worse. The atmosphere also is widely contaminated with neurotoxins, such as mercury from industrial emissions, hormone-disrupting poisons and cancer-causing chemicals, such as pesticides and solvents.

“The landscape is littered with worthy but badly neglected proposals for government action on the environment.”

Scientists have trumpeted their concern about this perilous trajectory for years, to little avail. The Global Footprint Network calculates that humanity now removes at least 25% more resources from the planet than it can feasibly replenish. Some people have resigned themselves to disaster, others deny the problem. Pragmatic “solutionists” offer a variety of – more or less appealing – remedies: building wealthy enclaves, trusting in free-market economies, policy reformation and back-to-nature communities. At this point, the old ways haven’t succeeded, so it’s time to write a new chapter.

“Modern Capitalism: Out of Control”

Economists hail growth as the key to prosperity. Capitalism is so widely embraced that some liken it to a religion. Yet ruthless growth and exponential economic expansion have a price. The economy gobbles natural resources, pollutes the air and water, and cares little for sustainability.

“Environmental economics is the modern-day economist’s answer to the failure of the market to care for the environment.”

One leading economist, Wallace Oates, believes the market has failed environmentally, because product prices do not reflect the true value of the water, air and resources they consume. The calculus of capitalism does not factor in the needs of future generations. Polluters and exploiters don’t pay their fair share, and government subsidies encourage poor practices. New technology has led to more efficient product design and reduced energy demands, but total consumption continues to climb. Modern companies try to sidestep the environmental costs of their products – searching for “subsidies, tax breaks and regulatory loopholes.” Corporations and stockholders benefit, while the environment sickens. Capitalism is at odds with sustainability and prevailing government practices reinforce the problem. Globalization and international trade have spread counterproductive incentives and environmental degradation planet-wide. How can society change business-as-usual? That pivotal question demands immediate, serious attention.

“The Limits of Today’s Environmentalism”

Most environmentalists work within the system, promoting regulation and sustainable business practices. They assume today’s lifestyle can be maintained and economic growth fostered while achieving satisfactory environmental compromises. They work toward incremental improvements, but they don’t treat the underlying systemic ills.

“Global environmental problems have gone from bad to worse, governments are not yet prepared to deal with them, and at present, many governments...lack the leadership to get prepared.”

The past 40 years of environmentalism have achieved few successes. For all the meetings on climate, biodiversity, desertification and fisheries, none of these resources are yet adequately protected. Treaties are nonbinding and lack quantitative targets, timelines or enforcement. The process is innately flawed, because government remains heavily influenced by industry. Despite the anti-pollution laws the U.S. has passed over the past decades, its environmental gains are few. Perversely, the U.S. spends billions on subsidies that foster unsustainable practices. Federal law and institutions contribute to the problem. Without fixing such underlying issues, progress is impossible. For example, “despite a federal policy of no net loss of wetlands, tidal marshes, swamps and other wetlands continue to disappear at a rate of about a 100,000 acres a year.” The bottom line: Status quo environmentalism is a disappointing failure.

Casting Blame

The media has contributed to the environment’s decline. Reporters have not consistently covered key issues. Their “formulaic” insistence on giving equal time to opposing viewpoints ends up giving credence to bogus claims. In addition, profit-hungry conglomerates are buying newspapers and TV stations, which shifts newsroom priorities.

“Water could be conserved and used more efficiently if it were sold at its full cost...but both politicians and farmers have a stake in keeping water prices low.”

Some pundits say environmental organizations are gullible because they trusted the federal government. Others note the rise of a right-wing, “enormously successful anti-environmental disinformation industry.” Unfortunately, even if these problems were reversed – the media snapped out of its fog, environmentalists became politically shrewd and the public acknowledged global warming – capitalism would keep serving “an ever-increasing volume of environmental insults.” For example, new technologies such as “genetic engineering and nanotech” are presumed benign until proven guilty – even though it can take years for complex problems to surface. And environmental problems are becoming harder to comprehend. By now, only the most specialized lawyers can make sense of dense environmental laws, which are rarely enforced anyway.

Alternative Approaches

Scholars of “environmental economics” believe a free market is the best remedy, if it takes the full cost of products into account and aligns with government programs that promote the common good. Many environmentalists originally eschewed such market-based strategies, but they have come to see the potential benefits. For example, Germany used tax incentives to increase energy efficiency, and American “cap and trade” programs have cut air pollution. The goal is to link financial rewards with actions that protect the environment. A “polluter pays” policy makes sense, but setting environmentally sound prices is very difficult. First, calculating the true, full cost of environmental damage and human sickness caused by producing and selling any particular product requires extremely detailed information. And how do you value future impact against today’s benefits?

The Question of Growth

Society must rethink capitalism’s simplistic devotion to growth. Continuing to prioritize growth will sabotage environmental success. Unbridled capitalism fosters environmental decline along with other social problems, making participants “prisoners of plenty.” Many ecological economists challenge prevailing assumptions about the benefits of growth. Even the popular notion of sustainability is ripe with different interpretations, some of which foster consumption.

“Basically, the economic system does not work when it comes to protecting environmental resources, and the political system does not work when it comes to correcting the economic system.”

People must explore alternatives to ruthless growth, but “what are the practical and political prospects for a post-growth society?” Economic welfare and environmental protection are not necessarily at odds. No one really knows clearly yet whether sustainable business practices and improved consumer efficiencies can reduce the release of carbon dioxide adequately or quickly enough to bring about a meaningful net improvement. Ideally, economic growth can be made “greener,” though population growth is still harmful.

“The worst impacts can still be averted, but action must be taken with swiftness and determination or a ruined planet is the likely outcome, based on the best science we have.”

The real growth the U.S. needs is growth in employment, health services, restored ecosystems and infrastructure. Gross domestic product is not the right measure of a nation’s well-being. The gross domestic product (GDP) does not address the pattern of “soaring wealth and sinking spirit.” Alternatives to GDP include the “Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare (ISEW),” “Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI),” and “Happy Planet Index (HPI).”

Going Green

The growing size of American homes, the amount of waste and the ballooning consumption of energy all point to destructive consumption trends. It’s time to “challenge consumption” head-on. Toward that end, the Environmental Grantmakers Association suggests increasing green policy incentives, spotlighting corporate behavior and teaching the public about green purchasing power.

“If the first watchword of the new environmental politics is ‘broaden the agenda,’ the second is ‘get political’.”

The financial risks of global warming are at last driving some corporations to pursue green measures. Voluntary programs, however, have limited outreach. Making corporations embrace productive change is difficult, in part because businesses enjoy many protections under current laws. Government policies should rein in corporations by restoring liability, reforming political influence and even changing regulations.

“The further and faster market transformation is pursued, the better off our children and grandchildren will be.”

Whether materialism can be delinked from modern culture is a complex question. But the time has come to rethink meaningful values, and focus more on adequate supplies, social connectedness and the importance of nature. Capitalism doesn’t have to be replaced by socialism, but it must change, perhaps seeded by local efforts. Cooperatives and public trusts have the potential to be powerful forces. Many charities, local governments and even pension funds have already become agents of positive change.

A host of authors and thinkers envision pathways to a sustainable society. Effective political leaders can help America create a new narrative that features wiser environmental politics and greater social equity. The status quo is a death march. Citizens in all walks of life must become energized to achieve meaningful change, so humanity can continue to thrive on the planet. Rather than fall into the abyss, society must undertake “a struggle that must be won even though we cannot see clearly what lies beyond the bridge” at the edge of the world.

About the Author

James Gustave Speth is dean of the School of Forestry and Environmental Studies at Yale University, and author of Red Sky at Morning. He was a White House environmental adviser, headed an environmental policy think tank and led an international agency for the U.N.


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The Bridge at the Edge of the World

Book The Bridge at the Edge of the World

Capitalism, the Environment, and Crossing from Crisis to Sustainability

Yale UP,


 



22 February 2026

When I'm Sixty-Four

Recommendation

For many Americans, the dream of a safe, secure retirement has become a cruel joke. Elderly people without pensions find themselves trying to squeeze by on Social Security as they work part time for minimum wage serving hamburgers or greeting customers at discount stores. Some have money saved, but the overall U.S. savings rate is way down. For most workers, reliable pensions are becoming a thing of the past, just as costs are rising. Pension expert Teresa Ghilarducci explains that Social Security is under threat, even though many retirees have no other source of income. What is to be done? At this point, Ghilarducci stops analyzing and starts recommending. Americans need a bold, new government program offering “Guaranteed Retirement Accounts” (GRAs). She asserts that – given a burst of radical change – this idea can provide safe, secure incomes for U.S. elders. BooksInShort finds that even though some readers might dispute her political conclusions and the fine points of her alternative plan, Ghilarducci cares passionately about retirement policy and provokes a meaningful conversation for those who hope for a dignified retirement.

Take-Aways

  • In humane societies, the elderly can retire with dignity, but now retirement is under siege in the U.S.
  • Many conservatives oppose the nation’s retirement system and would like to end it.
  • Companies used to offer traditional “defined benefit” pension plans.
  • Now, most companies offer “defined contribution” pension plans, like 401(k)s, instead.
  • Defined contribution plans are cheaper for the company and help negate its risk.
  • However, they are also less effective in terms of guaranteeing a secure retirement.
  • For retirement, the average worker will require 100% of his or her preretirement income. Low-wage workers will need an even higher percentage of what they earned.
  • Forecasters say that one out of five U.S. retirees may live in poverty in the future.
  • Today, most Americans have exceedingly weak “retirement wealth portfolios.”
  • “Guaranteed Retirement Accounts,” featuring mandated savings and government guarantees, could help safeguard retirement for U.S. workers.

Summary

Retirement Under Attack

Although Americans are living longer, many are enjoying old age less. Those who turn 65 in 2010 are likely to survive for more years than any 65-year-old people in history, but they will spend 14% fewer months being retired. This is due to a prevailing school of thought that believes if people are living longer, they ought to work longer as well, particularly if they are not prosperous. With this in mind, ask yourself just who would come out ahead if “pension income” – such as Social Security – became less available and less reliable.

“Giving people more free time near the end of their lives is a good reason to celebrate, defend and even expand particular aspects of the American pension and Social Security system.”

Clearly, less well-off elderly people would suffer the most because they would be forced to work into senescence instead of retiring. Employers would benefit because they could reduce the wages of elderly workers forced to compete with younger people for available jobs. The other winners would be the financial managers who set up and supervise 401(k) and similar voluntary retirement savings plans, including the types of plans needed if the U.S. government ever privatizes Social Security.

“Making retirement available to almost all workers, that is, ‘democratizing retirement,’ is one of the greatest achievements of robust market economies.”

Advanced, humane societies provide safe, reliable retirement systems. With the introduction of Social Security in 1935, the U.S. led the way toward providing older people with a secure, dignified retirement. Under Social Security’s original terms, everyone could have some semblance of a secure retirement. Organizational pension plans began with a similar intent – to give members of a group or the people in a corporation’s workforce reasonable retirement benefits after decades of hard work.

The Death of Defined Benefit Plans

In recent years, the emphasis in the U.S. has shifted away from set benefits and toward do-it-yourself plans, like Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs), including 401(k) set-asides. Some policy makers have even discussed creating “personal savings accounts” to fund individual Social Security payments. Emphasis on such build-your-own-retirement plans ignores how well Social Security works and what it has accomplished for millions of older Americans.

“Until the 1950s, only the wealthy could expect to retire.”

At one time, two out of three full-time workers in the U.S. had a defined benefits (DB) pension plan. Now, many U.S. companies have eliminated their DB pensions, and replaced them with “defined contribution” (DC) plans, providing 401(k)-type savings accounts with penalties for early withdrawal. Government workers continue to receive DB plans. Using DC plans saves companies money and transfers the risk of investing retirement funds to the individual workers. Younger people with low wages almost always fail to maintain their IRAs. When emergencies arise, dipping into savings is the quickest, most tempting way to cope, but defined benefit pension plans lock away savings, thus prohibiting early spending.

“Compared to what retirees actually experience, workers overrate what they can do for themselves.”

The demise of DB plans is unfortunate. They usually provide far better pension coverage than DC plans: The Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation guarantees them, they earn better returns, charge lower fees and perform as well as annuities. DB plans have smaller administrative costs and provide “more retirement income with less risk.” However, now such plans are rare, except for government workers and special provisions some firms make for high-ranking executives.

“Older people are working more hours, postponing retirement and going back to work after being retired, mainly because of the collapse of the pension system.”

For many workers, particularly those with limited means, “self-directed and voluntary” defined contribution plans are unreliable sources of retirement funding. Even if a retiring worker has money left in a DC plan, he or she typically gets a lump sum payout, not an annuity. That is not conducive to a secure retirement. Of course, higher income workers do well with 401(k) accounts, which are savings accounts, not pension plans. These workers can afford to sock away substantial sums each year. Unlike poorer workers, they do not tend to pull money out to meet emergencies. Employers love 401(k) plans, because they do not need to contribute to them on behalf of their workers, who use them to save money being withheld from their paychecks.

Common Retirement Misconceptions

Many Americans believe three incorrect ideas about retirement: that people are living longer so they should work more; that U.S. labor shortages will develop as more Americans age; and that pensions are not economically sustainable. Because of these misconceptions, a strong movement is afoot to attack the current pension system, even though it has performed well over the years.

“The elderly are increasing their work effort more than at any other time since World War II.”

One school of thought believes in privatizing Social Security, thus changing pensions from safe annuities into unsafe “financial market assets.” Many conservatives want to reduce Social Security benefits by increasing the retirement age. They urge private retirement savings accounts, and advocate replacing defined benefit plans with defined contribution plans. Such moves would make retirement even more of a gamble.

“The political history of Social Security demonstrates the effectiveness of expertise and bold ideas.”

Retirement is also far less democratic than in the past. Gender, class and income issues now determine who enjoys a secure retirement much more than they did previously. Many “minority, female and low-income workers” cannot afford to participate in existing pension plans, though attractive pensions often are available for higher-paid employees.

What You Need for a Secure Retirement

Economists and financial planners used to say that retirees need 60% to 85% of their preretirement earnings to live comfortably. This is no longer accurate. Because of inflation, increased healthcare costs and rising taxes, retirees actually need close to 100% of their preretirement income to get by. Low-wage workers need more than 100% of their prior incomes.

“Defined benefit pensions served their purpose, but their purpose was no longer needed – labor relations and managers no longer cared about employee loyalty.”

For example, take an American who earns $45,000 annually. Let’s say this person starts saving money at age 40 and earns “3% per year above inflation” (very optimistic) on any investments. For a safe, comfortable retirement, this individual must save some $27,000 annually. This unlikely achievement – which means accumulating savings and interest of nearly $1 million – would enable him or her, upon retirement, to buy an annuity that pays $45,000 annually (thus furnishing the needed 100% of preretirement income). Of course, this person would also have Social Security payments, so he or she would not need a full $45,000 annuity payment. And if this individual has no debt and could tap into the value of a home, things would be even better. Unfortunately, people often make such faulty assumptions about their ability to save, earn and stay out of debt when they plan retirement. Many experts think that Baby Boomers, overall, have not saved sufficient funds to retire at their accustomed “standard of living.”

The Standard “Retirement Wealth Portfolio” is in Big Trouble

For most Americans, a comfortable retirement depends on “Social Security, pensions, personal wealth, earnings, and kinship and community.” Unfortunately, the first four of these five areas are now weakened and even under threat. Social Security and pensions are not as robust as they once were. You now must be older to start collecting Social Security benefits. Current trends in the U.S. radically skew asset distribution in favor of the wealthy. Each year, the disparity between rich and poor becomes more pronounced. More elderly “retirees” now must work to survive. Thus, earnings now play a larger role in the retirement wealth portfolio, although many older people are limited in how much they are able to work, and their potential salaries or hourly fees are much lower than the incomes younger people potentially can earn.

“The less workers earn, the less likely they are to be covered by their employer’s defined benefit pension, and it is just as unlikely that they will participate...in their firm’s 401(k) pension plan.”

Americans face constant political pressure to extend the standard retirement age. Older people work more years than the elderly did in the 1980s. Before then, people retired much earlier. The “so-called Greatest Generation” – people born between 1920 and 1935 – has benefited nicely from retirement. Its members receive Medicare and many have annuity-type pensions. Those who owned stocks were able to sell them at high prices during the boom years of the 1990s to pay for their retirements.

“Employer risk is high in a DB plan because an employer’s financial health greatly determines the pension’s value over time.”

Social scientists estimate that 20% of all future retirees could be poor. Those born between 1946 and 1962 are likely to be the last generation that will enjoy a more affluent retirement than previous generations. After that, things will slide downhill fast for future retirees. “Divorced women, low-wage workers and retirees with long-term care needs and medical expenses” will suffer most.

“The GRAs eliminate the bias toward 401(k) plans and the tax subsidy for a system that does not work – this situation is the very definition of inefficiency.”

Retirement has become a huge risk. The only bright spot, ironically, is that the “share of retirement income from work” is increasing and will continue to grow, probably exponentially. Older people have only a bit more than half of the earnings of average households, so many older people simply must stay employed. A 2002 Gallup poll found that 45% of working Americans older than 50 anticipated not having sufficient funds to live “comfortably when retired.”

The Assault on Social Security

Social Security is under constant political assault. In recent decades, many conservative and libertarians have worked to change it so, they say, it can avoid bankruptcy. Soon the U.S. will have too many retirees subsisting on the incomes of too few workers. Many conservatives want to “privatize” (although they now avoid using this word) Social Security by adopting personal savings accounts. Many Republicans hope that personal savings accounts will be the future of Social Security, but such accounts present numerous questions and problems. Will people be able to manage their own accounts effectively? Will implementing savings accounts require cutting benefits? What about the costs of money management or the heavy expenses of changing over from the current system? Opponents raise other issues concerning the privatization of Social Security – which would become, in effect, a “pay-as-you-go” retirement funding system.

“The diminishment of Social Security is part of the attack on retirement entitlement.”

In 2003, Social Security trustees began using an “infinite time horizon” to forecast the program’s financial strengths and liabilities into an unending future. This replaced the previous 75-year time horizon, already an unusually long extension. Canada is the only other country that uses a window as long as 75 years to estimate future “social insurance projections.”

“More young people believed in UFOs, Unidentified Flying Objects, than believed that Social Security would be there for them when they retire.”

If you extend Social Security’s liabilities into infinity, as a mathematical approach, its projected financial shortfalls nearly double. Its costs rise from 0.68% of gross domestic product to 2.3%. Of course, conservatives believe that Social Security is always in a severe crisis. In 1982, they claimed the program would be unable to pay benefits within a two-year period.

A New Approach: “Guaranteed Retirement Accounts”

Social Security is not supposed to be the sole provider of a solid retirement for American workers. Pensions and savings also have a crucial role, but the U.S. savings rate is very low and the pension system clearly is crippled. Unless changes are made quickly, many people will not be able to afford to retire. To solve this problem, the U.S. government should mandate “Guaranteed Retirement Accounts” (GRAs) and guarantee a 3% minimum rate of return, adjusted for inflation. The accounts would be administered by an agency of the government, not commercial, profit-seeking financial managers. People would have to save 5% of their earnings. They would get a $600 annual tax credit, but would not be allowed to withdraw money before retirement or age 65. They would receive their payouts as “inflation-indexed annuities.”

Combined with a strengthened Social Security system and standard defined benefit pension plans, GRAs could assure most workers a serene retirement. GRAs would not involve “unfunded liabilities.” They would promote savings and benefit all workers (not just the well-paid). The program would exempt people with defined benefit plans “where the pension contribution is at least 5% of earnings.” The government would set the GRA retirement age just as Social Security sets its retirement age. With Social Security, GRAs would enable older people to retire with dignity.

About the Author

Teresa Ghilarducci is director of the Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis at The New School for Social Research. She is an expert on retirement reform.


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When I'm Sixty-Four

Book When I'm Sixty-Four

The Plot against Pensions and the Plan to Save Them

Princeton UP,


 



22 February 2026

The Impulse Factor

Recommendation

Are you likely to risk everything for a potentially huge payout? Or do you tend to look for a “safe bet”? Nick Tasler, research director for a workplace learning and training firm, examines the psychological and genetic factors that shape these human tendencies. He says that people approach decisions from either a “potential seeking” or “risk managing” perspective, and explains that how you manage the strengths and weaknesses of your particular decision-making style determines the quality of your choices. Tasler proves himself a raconteur as well as a scholar. His book is a delightful smorgasbord of case studies covering a variety of people and organizations, from Bill Gates and Neal Cassady to the National Football League’s San Diego Chargers. BooksInShort recommends this fascinating book to anyone who wants to understand and improve his or her decision-making style and abilities.

Take-Aways

  • Impulsivity has genetic determinants. About one-quarter of all people have the “novelty-seeking gene.”
  • Low levels of monoamine oxidase, an enzyme in the brain, lead to increased impulsivity.
  • However, your biology alone does not determine how you make decisions. External conditions influence your choices.
  • Even risk managers can act impulsively in certain social contexts, as in the “Tulip Mania” of the 16th and 17th centuries. This behavior is called “conditional impulsivity.”
  • “Functionally impulsive” people take fairly harmless risks while maintaining direction in their lives, whereas people with “dysfunctional impulsivity” tend to be reckless.
  • The “endowment effect” explains how people’s proprietary feelings cause them to act impulsively.
  • People approach decisions as either “potential seekers” or “risk managers.”
  • Potential seekers tend to overlook risks in pursuit of big, immediate gains.
  • Risk managers make choices that ensure their security and peace of mind.
  • By teaming up, risk managers and potential seekers can make more balanced decisions.

Summary

Impulsive Behavior: It’s in the Genes

Consider this experiment: A researcher offers subjects a choice between “two good deals.” The first deal is a chance to win a three-week trip to several European countries – but only if the subjects win a coin toss. The second is a guaranteed one-week trip to Italy. Which option would you choose? If you are like about three-quarters of the population, you would play it safe and select the second option. That means about one-quarter of people will impulsively take big chances to win huge prizes. Since the 1970s, scientists have conducted many similar experiments to study this decision-making trend, and the “cautious/impulsive ratio” has remained fairly constant: In any group, about one-fourth of the people will show impulsive behavior.

“Impulsive people actually see the decision itself from a different angle. It is not necessarily that they choose risk over safety. It is that they are naturally predisposed to pay little attention to risk because their mind is consumed by the potential reward.”

Genetics can help explain why some people are more impulsive than others. The human brain contains monoamine oxidase (MAO), an enzyme that limits impulsive behavior. However, some people have low levels of MAO. That allows dopamine, a “carefree chemical” linked to sociability and the desire to try new things, to reign free in the brain. The result: impulsive, fun-seeking and often risk-taking behavior. The dopamine receptor gene, D4, also influences impulsivity. All humans have this gene, but the number of times “a segment of the gene repeats itself in the genetic sequence” can vary from person to person. About three-quarters of the global population have a variation of the gene in which the segment repeats itself four times. And about one-quarter of people have a variant in which the segment repeats itself seven times. Scientists call this longer D4 variant the “novelty-seeking gene.” Those who have it are “less sensitive” to dopamine, so they must go out of their way to experience a dopamine rush. They are likely to engage in extra-stimulating, risky activities.

“Putting it on the line with no backup plan is the hallmark behavior of potential seekers.”

Though impulsive behavior can sometimes lead to recklessness, it can also enable great change and progress. This “adaptive edge” explains why the novelty-seeking gene exists in a substantial portion of the world’s population. The D4 variant first manifested in humans 40,000 to 50,000 years ago. A few scientists speculate that the humans who left Africa for Europe some 40,000 years ago may have possessed – and been spurred on by – this gene. As Europe’s Neanderthal population dwindled to extinction, the bold explorers who carried this gene advanced.

“All impulsivity is not created equal.”

Although understanding how your biology influences your impulsivity, and thus your decision making, is important, you must also consider the external conditions that shape your choices. Remember that “every decision...has two key elements that determine its outcome: the person and the situation.” To manage decision making effectively, become aware of your own patterns, then combine that knowledge with insights about how external conditions affect you.

“Directionally Correct”

Impulsive people and cautious people often make vastly different decisions. This results, in part, because they bring different perspectives to decision making. Impulsive people focus so heavily on rewards that they often overlook risks. As a result, some impulsive people score big gains. However, they often suffer big losses, too. That is the chance they are willing to take. They “go for broke” and sometimes “end up going broke.”

“Conditional impulsivity brings to light the fact that a risk-taking decisive person exists inside everyone.”

Whether people’s impulsive behavior leads to success or ruin partly depends on whether they exhibit “functional impulsivity” or “dysfunctional impulsivity.” Functionally impulsive people take risks that are fairly harmless. They are aware that a “correct path exists,” and they know their own limitations. As a result, they are able to maintain a clear direction for their lives. Take, for example, Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates, a functionally impulsive individual who attained great success. By contrast, dysfunctional impulsivity causes people to be antisocial and reckless. Some even become career criminals.

It’s All Politics

Most people are “security-minded.” They pay much closer attention to bad news than good news because they are looking out for potential dangers. Many politicians exploit this tendency in their campaign strategies. Rather than focusing on their own qualifications, these candidates send out “danger calls” about their opponents. This taps an unconscious nerve in many voters, one linked to natural instinct. In effect, these politicians are signaling to the public that their opponents are “predators.” In politics, this approach often works. Voters who fear politicians will not vote for them. Safety far outweighs other concerns.

“Tulip Mania”

During the 16th and 17th centuries, an odd phenomenon known as tulip mania swept across the Netherlands. The Dutch fell in love with the beautiful but then-rare flower. People paid great sums of money for tulips: The price rose as high as the equivalent of $76,000 per tulip bulb. Aristocrats and poor folks alike sought loans to invest in tulips. But, as with all speculative bubbles, the price of tulip bulbs eventually fell. When it did, the Dutch economy collapsed.

“Cautious people don’t behave impulsively to distance themselves from the group. They behave impulsively to keep up with the group.”

Many people became wildly impulsive during the tulip craze, even individuals who would normally have been cautious. This is because “cautious individuals will predictably make risky decisions whenever they have fallen below some self-set reference point.” For Dutch citizens with this mind-set, inactivity represented a loss. Not investing posed a bigger risk than borrowing against their property, so they engaged in “conditional impulsivity.”

“Playing Mine Games”

Economist Richard Thaler studied a phenomenon he calls the “endowment effect”: the way in which proprietary feelings can cause people to act impulsively. Thaler examined how this phenomenon affects trading on or following draft day in the National Football League (NFL). He observed that NFL fans tend to develop a sense of ownership of the individual players their teams draft. Thus, if a team trades a drafted player for a different athlete, the fans view the swap as a “loss” rather than a “strategic move.” As a result, the disappointed fans may stop buying tickets. Team owners know they must adapt to the “fans’ impulsive response” to continue making money, so they avoid trading their draft picks.

“When forced to make a decision, cautious people often tend to define the outcome that they don’t want and then let that conclusion guide their choice.”

“Prefeeling” causes a sense of “expected ownership” in people. This “ability not only to imagine future events, but also to experience how [you] might feel in the future” can make you dread losing something you’ve never actually owned. For example, car dealers use strategies that encourage prefeeling in shoppers. The salespeople routinely invite prospects to take a car out for a spin. They know that when you get behind the wheel of a new car, you experience what it would be like to own that car. Turning over the keys to the salesperson at the end of a test drive is difficult, because you sense a “lost opportunity.”

“Factoring You into Your Decisions”

Understanding functional and dysfunctional impulsivity, conditional impulsivity and the endowment effect can help you become aware of patterns in your own decision making. Identifying your individual decision-making style is also important. Two basic types of decision makers exist: “potential seekers,” who desire huge, more instantaneous gains, and “risk managers,” who carefully analyze the long-term effects of a decision. Keep in mind that these are just general behavioral trends: No two risk managers or potential seekers will make decisions in exactly the same way, and “all people are capable of occasionally playing both roles.” What type of decision maker are you? The following descriptions may help you decide.

Potential Seekers

If you are a potential seeker, you’re able to make quick decisions. You are always ready to place your bet in a situation, though you may have learned from past experiences to “fend off an impulse that could cause damage.” Failure to see how your decisions affect others may be one of your greatest limitations. Though you tend to take many risks, you “don’t particularly enjoy risk or failure” more than any other person. You want only to win – and win big.

“Whereas risk managers can occasionally be too focused on what other people are doing or thinking, potential seekers have a tendency to be too focused on immediate gain and not enough on other people.”

To become a successful potential seeker, get in the habit of questioning your decisions and judgments. Whenever you face a new decision, ask yourself, “Is this decision in line with the direction I’ve chosen for myself?” If your answer is no, ask, “Do I need to make a correction?” Phrase your questions in a constructive way. Don’t ask, “What are the risks?” Instead, ask, “Will this decision destroy future potential for me?” Be aware of your strengths and weaknesses, and know when to ask for help. Understand that as a gambler, you cannot possibly win every hand you are dealt. Routinely put aside some of the money you gain through your bold gambles. This emergency fund will be useful when the dice don’t roll your way.

“Creating connections with the people around you requires the very patience that potential seekers tend to lack.”

Don’t make the mistake of trying to repress your impulsivity. If you are impulsive, self-control runs counter to your nature. Instead, channel your impulsivity in positive, healthy ways. Concentrate on taking risks that align with your chosen direction. Gather input from other people to ensure you are on the right path. Build a support network of friends and colleagues to keep you from straying from your goals. Planning and organization probably are not your strong suits. Try to find someone who is good at these functions to help you with them.

Risk Managers

If you are a risk manager, you don’t like to play the odds. Your careful decision making results in steady progress over time rather than great leaps forward. Though your cautious approach helps you make sound choices, your fear of taking a wrong step may lead to indecision. However, you are excellent at anticipating problems, and you know how to stay on top of a situation. Planning is one of your strengths, and you usually employ sensible, well-conceived strategies.

“For some people the impulsive tendency is a lifestyle choice as much as it is a genetic predisposition.”

Because you are attuned to possible dangers and threats, you may have a tendency to fold up your tent and retreat at the first sign of trouble. As a result, you sometimes miss out on good opportunities. Try not to focus on what you want to avoid. Instead, zero in on what you want to achieve. Use the “think, analyze and react” formula to guide you through a difficult decision:

  • Think: Sort information into “key factors” and “distracters.”
  • Analyze: Examine only the key factors; ignore the rest.
  • React: Make a timely decision based on your analysis.
“The universally correct way to make a decision is a moving target that will forever be one to two steps ahead of us.”

Fear of negative consequences is part of your mental landscape. As a result, you may tend to overanalyze situations. Avoid falling into this trap by asking yourself, “Do I really need additional data to make a decision?” Examine your true motives. Do you require more information, or are you avoiding taking a stand on an issue? If you are chronically indecisive, take steps to strengthen your decision-making skills. Force yourself to make quick choices in a relatively stress-free context, like the grocery store or a restaurant. Try to increase your decision-making speed with each new visit. Arrive at each destination with a clear goal in mind, and stick to it. Employing “targets and time limits” will enhance your decision-making style and build your confidence.

Opposites Attract

This maxim, which is true in many aspects of life, is highly relevant to decision making. If you are a risk manager, enlist the help of a potential-seeking teammate for your projects. (Be sure to choose one that is functionally impulsive.) Similarly, if you are a potential seeker, look for a risk manager who can complement your strengths and weaknesses. This effort to “strike a balance” is an effective business strategy. The risk manager in a team can plan and organize long-term projects. The potential seeker can then operate within the risk manager’s blueprints to strike boldly when it’s most strategic.

About the Author

Nick Tasler is the research director for a business consultancy firm that routinely works with Fortune 500 companies. He is a regular contributor to BusinessWeek.com.


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The Impulse Factor

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Why Some of Us Play It Safe and Others Risk It All. An Innovative Approach to Better Decision Making

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